If you’re applying for an H1B visa for the upcoming fiscal year, you’re likely asking: What are my h1b lottery chances? With an annual quota of 85,000 visas and an ever-growing pool of applicants, what can you do to improve your odds? What are your options if you are not selected in the lottery, especially if it is your third try? In this article, we offer a candid breakdown of the H1B lottery odds in light of recent policy changes that may impact your selection probability.

The H-1B visa lottery is the gateway for foreign nationals seeking to work in the U.S., a process surrounded by fierce competition and high stakes. For the fiscal year 2024, the visa cap was a total of 85,000, consisting of 65,000 under the regular cap and an additional 20,000 for applicants with a U.S. master’s degree or higher. This cap is often quickly reached, with USCIS receiving 758,994 eligible registrations for FY2024, out of which a mere 188,400 applications were selected.

Compare that to FY 2023, where the USCIS received 474,421 eligible registrations, of which 127,600 were selected.

The procedure for registration is rather simple. Prospective applicants must register electronically with USCIS within a specific window, typically lasting about 14 days. The registration requires employers to submit basic information about their company and the applicant, along with a $10 registration fee. Each registered beneficiary is then assigned a unique identification number to track submissions and facilitate the random selection process.

Once the registration period concludes, the lottery is conducted to select which registrants will be allowed to file their H-1B visa petitions. The lucky ones are notified through their USCIS online accounts, and employers can then submit Form I-129 (Petition for Alien Worker) after receiving the selection notice.

The H-1B lottery process continually evolves, and this year was no different. The most significant change this year was the implementation of a strict “one registration per person” rule. USCIS incorporated a duplicate checker functionality in the electronic registration process to prevent multiple submissions for the same beneficiary by the same petitioner. This means that multiple registrations for the same beneficiary by a single petitioner or related entities invalidates all submissions for that beneficiary.

This modification plays a vital role. It means that without multiple entries for the same person, the total number of registrations will be lower this year, which in turn increases the odds of being selected in the H1B lottery. This alteration to the lottery process is a game-changer, offering individual applicants a higher chance of securing their coveted H-1B visa.

What strategies can enhance your likelihood of success amidst this demanding lottery?

The H-1B advanced degree exemption, also known as the master’s cap, exempts beneficiaries with a U.S. master’s degree or higher from the regular H-1B cap until 20,000 such petitions are selected. This cap exemption offers a significant advantage, as it effectively grants applicants two chances in the lottery process: first through the master’s cap, and if not selected, then through the regular cap.

To qualify for this exemption, however, you need a degree from a U.S. recognized accredited institution, and you must include proof of the degree with your H-1B petition. If the degree has not been awarded by the time of the H-1B petition filing, a final transcript or a letter of completion from the institution’s registrar can serve as initial proof, especially for those receiving graduate medical education.

Employers must comply with the requirement to pay the prevailing or actual wage, demonstrating their commitment to maintaining fair wage standards. Certain job positions may pose eligibility challenges for H-1B status if they do not have well-established specialized knowledge requirements, thus, possession of a state license and employment authorization can significantly bolster the application.

In prior years, individuals have gotten away with multiple registrations. This year, the USCIS is serious about curtailing fraud and making the H1B lottery process more equitable. If you enter more than once, all your submissions will be rejected.

Engaging an experienced immigration attorney well-versed in immigration law to ensure your application meets all USCIS criteria is a wise decision. Remember, preparing a strong application is just as important as being selected in the lottery, and utilizing professional immigration services can make all the difference.

It’s worth mentioning, though, that not all organizations qualify. For-profit educational institutions and foreign higher education entities are not eligible for cap exemption, and individuals transferring from a cap-exempt to a non-exempt employer may become subject to the cap.

Moreover, H-1B petitions from a qualified U.S. institution of higher education or its nonprofit affiliates must involve the beneficiary in employment that supports the essential purpose of the petitioning institution.

If you aren’t selected in the first round of the lottery , the last few years have seen second lotteries. In the past five years, USCIS held second lotteries four times, demonstrating a regular pattern of second opportunities. However, the new regulations eliminating duplicate registrations may affect the likelihood of a second lottery this year. There are no guarantees with the lottery, but if you are selected in the second lottery, the USCIS will inform your employer.

If you don’t get selected in the H-1B lottery, here are other options to explore.

If your company has offices outside the U.S., ask your employer to transfer you to your company abroad, where you will have to work for at least a year before coming back to the U.S. on an L-1 visa. An L-1 visa allows multinational companies to transfer qualified employees to their U.S. offices. For folks born in India, China and anywhere else with lengthy green card backlogs, the path to green card via an L-1A visa is significantly faster than the H-1B visa.

A lesser known option is working remotely in Canada for your U.S. employer through a company like Syndesus. If you are on your last attempt at the lottery, with limited time left on OPT (optional practical training) and no scope for an L1 visa, this is your best bet.

Syndesus acts as your employer of record and is able to relocate you to Canada (any city you want) within 6-8 weeks. Same employer /job, same salary, just on the other side of the border. The cost is borne by your employer.

Two advantages to this route – you’ll earn your Canadian PR in 18-24 months and you can try your hand at the H-1B lottery again the following year. Of course, your employer has to be on board with you working from Canada.

Mexican and Canadian nationals with job offers in NAFTA-designated professions can apply for the TN visa which allows them to work in the U.S. Ask your company immigration lawyer if your role qualifies for a TN visa. The one thing to note with a TN visa is that it is a nonimmigrant visa, meaning you cannot apply for a U.S. green card while on it. So while it can temporarily solve your problem around working in the U.S., if you want to live in the U.S. permanently, you will eventually need to get on a different visa type.

Alternatively, Australian citizens in specialty occupations can consider the E-3 visa, which allows them to work in the United States for up to three years, while . As a foreign national, you might also consider seeking employment with a cap-exempt employer, a viable option for foreign workers in a specialty occupation depending on your industry and the amount of time left on your optional practical training or curricular practical training.

Another option is to have an immigration attorney evaluate your experience for an O1 or Eb1-A visa, aimed at individuals with extraordinary ability. While the bar is high, you don’t have to be Einstein to qualify for these categories. One of the biggest advantages of the Eb1-A visa is that you can self-petition and don’t need employer sponsorship like you do with an H-1b visa.

If you are still pursuing a STEM degree or early into STEM OPT, you may be able to take specific actions in your career and build towards an EB-1 profile. To do that, you have to understand the criteria for extraordinary achievement. There are several immigration attorneys and immigrants online that offer advice around this.

While the annual cap on H-1B visas might seem daunting, there’s a silver lining: cap-exempt employers. These employers, which include higher education institutions, non-profit organizations affiliated with higher education institutions, and governmental research organizations, are free from the annual H-1B cap constraints. This means they can file applications at any time of the year, offering more employment flexibility for H-1B applicants.

We dive deeper into these options along with Day 1 CPT on this page dedicated to H-1B alternatives. The best thing you can do for yourself is understand the universe of options and start planning early. Knowing the odds are not in your favor, you must have a plan B and C. Armed with the right information and a strategic approach, it’s possible to navigate this process and improve your chances of success. It’s often not a straight line to an employment based green card. With that said, we wish you the best of lucky in next year’s lottery and hope this article was helpful!

*The content and materials available via Path to Canada are for informational purposes only and do not constitute legal advice