When the FY 2025 H-1B registration numbers were released in April 2024, the trend was unmistakable: securing an H-1B visa has become increasingly improbable. The electronic registration system implemented in 2020 that was intended to streamline the H-1B lottery procedure has ironically resulted in dramatically lower selection odds. There were over 900,000 applications for H-1B visas this year, up 15% from 780,884 last year, with just 12.8% of eligible H-1B registrations selected for FY 2025.

The reaction to these figures has been severe, with critical media coverage, allegations of system manipulation, and calls for comprehensive reform. However, despite the ongoing debate, the reality remains unchanged: the H-1B visa has become increasingly unreliable for companies urgently needing to recruit talent, particularly in the tech industry.

Let’s examine the H-1B visa trends over the past four years to understand the current situation. Then we’ll explore how remotely employing tech professionals in Canada serves as a viable solution when the H-1B seems out of reach and other US immigration options aren’t available.

How has the H-1B visa program been trending since 2020?

Before the H-1B registration system was introduced in 2020, employers were required to submit complete H-1B cap-subject petitions to US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) during a short filing period starting April 1 of each year. Then, eligible petitions would be selected at random assuming 85,000 applications were received, which for the past decade or more they have been.

By introducing an electronic registration system, USCIS aimed, in theory, to simplify the H-1B cap selection process, resulting in cost reductions and enhanced efficiency for both the petitioners and the agency. When USCIS receives in excess of 85,000 H-1B registrations, the current visa cap, they initiate the electronic H-1B lottery system with those selected eligible to submit H-1B petitions. It is critical to include comprehensive evidence in the initial petition to avoid potential denials by USCIS.

The situation has become even more challenging than anticipated. The probability of securing a spot in the H-1B visa lottery continues to plummet each year, leaving companies and potential employees in an increasingly precarious position.

Trump Administration’s 2025 H-1B Policies

The return of the Trump administration in 2025 has introduced additional uncertainty to the H-1B landscape. Several policy changes are in development or already being implemented:

• The previously proposed wage-based H-1B selection process is being reconsidered
• There’s increased scrutiny of applications for certain occupational categories
• More rigorous enforcement of “specialized knowledge” requirements
• Additional documentation demands for third-party placements
• Heightened site visit frequency for H-1B employers

The qualifications and legal obligations of the petitioning employer are crucial in securing approval for visa petitions, as they must prove their legitimacy and capability to hire.

These policy shifts, combined with the already dismal selection odds, make the H-1B visa an increasingly unreliable talent acquisition strategy, particularly for tech companies competing for global talent.

While there are other US work visas that companies pursue, they aren’t always available for all candidates, including those needed to fill critical tech industry job openings. This is where Canada comes in as a potential solution, particularly with its Global Talent Stream (GTS).

The GTS program offers an innovative alternative to US companies that are struggling with the uncertainty of the H-1B visa situation, presenting a more reliable method to attract and hire global talent, particularly in the tech industry.

H-1B Registration and Lottery Process

The H-1B registration and lottery process is a critical step for employers seeking to hire foreign talent. Each year, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) opens a registration period where employers can submit electronic registrations for potential H-1B beneficiaries. This system, introduced in 2020, aims to streamline the process and reduce administrative burdens.

Once the registration period closes, USCIS conducts a random lottery to select the registrations that will be eligible to file full H-1B petitions. Given the high volume of registrations, the lottery is highly competitive, making it essential for employers to ensure their registrations are accurate and complete. Despite the streamlined process, the odds of selection remain low, prompting many employers to explore alternative visa options.

FY 2025 Lottery Predictions

As we look ahead to the FY 2025 H-1B lottery, the demand for H-1B visas is expected to remain high. With over 900,000 registrations in FY 2024, the trend indicates that competition will be fierce. Employers and beneficiaries should be prepared for a challenging process and consider alternative visa options if their registration is not selected. The unpredictability of the lottery underscores the importance of having a robust immigration strategy in place.

Historical Registration Data

Historical data on H-1B registrations reveals a steady increase in the number of applications over the years. This upward trend reflects the growing demand for skilled foreign workers in the United States, particularly in the tech industry. As the number of registrations continues to rise, the competition for H-1B visas becomes more intense, making it crucial for employers to stay informed and prepared.

Impact of COVID-19 on H-1B Registrations

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted H-1B registrations, with a noticeable decrease in FY 2020 and FY 2021. Travel restrictions, economic uncertainty, and changes in immigration policies contributed to the decline. However, as the world recovers from the pandemic, the number of H-1B registrations is expected to rebound in FY 2025. The demand for skilled foreign workers remains strong, and employers are once again turning to the H-1B program to meet their talent needs.

H-1B Visa Denial Trends and Strategies

Understanding H-1B visa denial trends and strategies is crucial for employers and beneficiaries aiming to navigate the complex immigration landscape. By identifying common reasons for denial and implementing effective strategies, employers can increase their chances of approval and avoid costly delays.

Top Reasons for H-1B Visa Denial

Several factors contribute to H-1B visa denials, including:

1. Failure to establish a legitimate employer-employee relationship: USCIS requires clear evidence that the employer will have the right to control the employee’s work.
2. Insufficient documentation of the petitioning employer’s existence and revenue: Employers must provide comprehensive documentation to prove their operational status and financial stability.
3. Failure to demonstrate a specialty occupation: The position must require specialized knowledge and a minimum of a bachelor’s degree or equivalent.
4. Inadequate documentation of the beneficiary’s qualifications: Beneficiaries must provide evidence of their educational background and work experience.
5. Failure to meet the prevailing wage requirements: Employers must offer a wage that meets or exceeds the prevailing wage for the occupation in the intended area of employment.
6. Failure to respond to a Request for Evidence (RFE): Timely and thorough responses to RFEs are essential to avoid denials.
7. Failure to pay the required registration fee: Ensuring all fees are paid accurately and on time is crucial.
8. Failure to provide a valid employment authorization document: Proper documentation is necessary to prove the beneficiary’s authorization to work.

To avoid these pitfalls, employers should work with an experienced immigration attorney who can guide them through the process, ensure all documentation is complete and accurate, and respond promptly to any RFEs. Additionally, being prepared to explore alternative visa options can provide a backup plan if the H-1B petition is denied.

By understanding the H-1B registration and lottery process, as well as the top reasons for H-1B visa denial, employers and beneficiaries can increase their chances of approval and achieve their immigration goals.

What is the Global Talent Stream and how can it help US companies who can’t hire tech talent due to the H-1B visa lottery explore alternative visa options?

Canada’s GTS program, part of the Global Skills Strategy, allows Canadian employers to easily hire foreign-born tech workers. By fast-tracking the hiring process, the GTS program helps bring skilled talent into Canada, particularly in the tech sector.

Receiving work authorization for a GTS application can take less than two weeks, making it one of the world’s fastest immigration pathways for tech workers. The GTS program also provides a swift route to permanent residency and, eventually, Canadian citizenship within a few years.

2025 GTS Updates and Advantages

While the H-1B program faces increasing restrictions, Canada has continued to strengthen the Global Talent Stream:

• Processing times have remained consistent at 10-14 business days despite increased volume
• The eligible occupation list has expanded to include more specialized tech roles
• Provincial cooperation has increased, offering additional immigration pathways
• The program continues to operate without annual caps or lottery systems

The program has played a pivotal role in the growth of Canada’s tech industry, enabling companies to attract highly skilled professionals from around the world. However, it’s not only Canadian companies that can take advantage of the GTS. US companies, both with and without offices in Canada, can also use it to access and retain global talent.

If a US company already has a legal presence in Canada, it can consider partnering with a Professional Employer Organization (PEO) to handle the administrative aspects of Canadian employment. This can include the necessary HR, legal, taxation, immigration, and other administrative operations conserving time and resources.

For US companies with no presence in Canada, there’s another option.

US companies without a legal entity in Canada can still hire tech talent remotely

Partnering with an Employer of Record (EOR) means smaller companies, or companies that just want to hire a few employees, can take advantage of having those employees based nearby in Canada without having a presence there. By having them based remotely in Canada, that worker can easily travel to the US on a short-term basis or collaborate with the US team in person. So, how does it work?

The EOR effectively steps in as the local employer from a legal perspective and assumes responsibility for hiring and terminating employees, payroll, stock and benefits management, HR, and many other services. The US employer remains responsible for the employee’s work, salary, and benefits package. Working with an EOR can make it simple to build an international presence without the associated stress, time, or overhead and offers a viable solution to the H-1B visa program challenges.

Remote Work Evolution in 2025

The post-pandemic remote work evolution has continued to mature, with several developments making the Canada solution even more attractive:

• Remote collaboration tools have become increasingly sophisticated
• Companies have established proven remote onboarding and management processes
• Time zone alignment between US and Canadian tech hubs offers seamless communication
• Cross-border business travel has fully normalized for occasional in-person collaboration

If a company does eventually decide to create its own legal entity and wants to transition off of the Canadian EOR, an EOR can help the US company in setting up its Canadian legal entity, transitioning away from the EOR, and providing ongoing PEO support moving forward.

The Business Case for Canada in 2025

Beyond simply solving the H-1B challenge, the Canada solution offers several strategic advantages:

• Talent retention: Keep valuable employees rather than losing them to immigration barriers
• Diversity maintenance: Continue building diverse, global teams regardless of US immigration policies
• Business continuity: Ensure critical roles remain filled with qualified professionals
• Geographic proximity: Maintain teams in the same or adjacent time zones for seamless collaboration
• Cost-effective approach: Avoid the expenses and uncertainties of the H-1B process
• Risk mitigation: Protect your workforce from sudden immigration policy changes

For companies with ongoing talent needs that the H-1B lottery cannot reliably fulfill, the Canadian alternative provides a stable, predictable path forward.

Start Your Canadian Hiring Strategy with an Immigration Attorney Today

With FY 2025 H-1B selection rates at a historic low of just 12.8% and additional policy uncertainties on the horizon, waiting for next year’s lottery is increasingly risky. Companies that need to secure tech talent now are finding the Canadian solution provides the certainty and speed that the H-1B program no longer offers.

The continuing decline in H-1B selection odds—from 31.5% in FY 2021 to just 12.8% in FY 2025—tells a clear story: alternative approaches to global tech hiring are no longer optional but essential for companies that need to remain competitive.

Explore how Canada’s Global Talent Stream can help your US company move crucial tech talent to Canada, hire directly into Canada when the US isn’t an option, or otherwise tap into a database of highly-trained tech workers ready to immigrate to Canada for the right tech job.